tv Fast Money CNBC September 10, 2012 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
i will see you tomorrow right here on ""closing bell."" have a great night. markets on edge. >> stocks remain on edge ahead of this week's big fed meeting. >> will big ben deliver this week? >> is the fed going to do something this week? >> i would put it at no better than 50/50. >> the most important event could be from america's favorite company. >> apple coming off the all-time high shares are now down by about a little more than $1. >> fresh on the trading floor this is "fast money." live from the nasdaq market i'm melissa lee. a dramatic move in apple today. the stock continues to fall ahead of the release of the iphone 5 on wednesday. >> i don't know the answer but i know if you are holding apple in
your portfolio you had to pay attention to the price action today. i did. puts it under the market. augu august 31st, $6.57. i think when you look at the earnings in october they are not going to be good on the iphone side. you saw the numbers slide to 25 million last quarter out. i think if you want to make an absolute call you look at the second derivative plays. those were all down 5% today. that is where you need to make the decisions in or out. apple you hold it. >> where do you stand on the price action hitting a new all time high. >> we had a couple of these and had it on the samsung. if you can read the acid coming through my twitter page at me it is unamerican to say apple sl
put at short term top. the price action into this event has been extraordinary. you have a 7% move into this number. i think the fact that the media has been so well flagged about how good of a product this will be, it is not going to disappoint in terms of the product. there are a lot of things that people want to see. the price action has been so extraordinary and if you look how they have traded usually down a couple percent on a month. deutsche bank has a good note about this today. you set yourself up for major disappointment and a market looking to rotate. this is the problem for apple. if you get through here apple has been very defensive and a reason why it has been so defensive. such a heavy weight that i think looks heavy and will see rotation. >> i get the rotation argument but apple is not at a valuation
where you feel compelled to rotate out of it. if you look at proctor & gamble those are the sorts of names i would think if you are playing for defense that you rotate out of those because of the historical valuation. >> it's caused a lot of tears, apple that is, for folks that tried to sell it unsuccessfully. let's look at what the day touched on. outside data meaning today is obviously high with the all-time high. we closed lower than friday's low which was $6.75. now you are setting up for potential outside week low. now it is only monday. a lot of time left on the clock. you have to keep that in mind. the story still as compelling as it has been the stock is still probably fine longer term. today we had technically today has to give you some pause.
look at the technicals today and take a look at what we potentially could go. >> good to see everybody actually. in terms of the weekly options you were mentioning how active they have been. >> extreme. over 150,000 contracts trading most in the near term. you are seeing a little bit of a volatility spike. i look at this as a complete opportunity. last time when it pulled back towards 660 that is when i added again. i will likely add if it breaks below 660 tomorrow. i don't see the need to add put protection yet. if you drop off the final figure and make it a double digit stock rather than a triple this is not that major of a move today. it doesn't concern me as much as it seems. >> percentage bases is not a huge move.
joe, you are making the point that you might not have to own this into the october quarter because the october quarter does not capture the iphone 5. >> the october quarter is going to be lousy. i wonder if you will have analysts that lower the price targets. this is the untold story of what goes on in the entire network. we talk about do you own apple. it means absolute yes or no. most money managers tell you at times maybe the max position is 100 shares or 50 shares. if you were at 100 shares you have to say maybe i only want to own 50. >> in terms of the broader markets if apple hits a stumbling block that is a big problem for the s&p 500. >> all i say is you make a good point. maybe apples and oranges. apple is still something to own.
some of the biggest hedge funds in the world which are not married to any name i think is crossover money that will leave this name if they think the momentum is gone. that is yet to be proven. absolutely. >> that is where the big percentage decline occurred today in the sky works solution. it was in the cirrus. you have to pay attention there and those become absolute decisions. >> you said apple and this is part of the reason you are seeing the s&p. i look at the pharmaceutical names hitting the new highs. the financials have had a magnificent run. you look at bank of america, citi moving in concert to the upside. you have seen the broader market rally. apple is sort of edged up slightly with google really taking the lead right now. when you take a look at the rest
of the tech space you can look at other techs like ibm. it is not just the two names that we focus on so much. i look at the broader names. >> the sas, the largest on the s&p is apple over the past 13 weeks up 19%. google is the 12th largest up 29%. they are both at all-time highs so that's why we point them out. when you have doubts about a stock's run going into an event what do you do? do you reach for protection? >> i bought the 655 puts. i just wonder if maybe the corner is light and apple splits the stock. i don't know that they do. this would be the quarter to suggest that they do. >> and then the rumor mill churns on. let's move on here. while the market reaches multi
year highs analysts forecast multi year lows. are we in for an earning's cliff? christine, what gives here? >> exactly what you said. right now we are looking at negative 2% growth for the s&p 500 for the third quarter. second quarter we just eked by and missed the negative earnings numbers and game up about .9%. the estimates are telling us that we are certainly heading for an earnings slow down if not a decline. if we hit the negative 2% it will be the lowest growth rate since the second quarter of 2009. bringing us numbers we saw during the great recession. there are five of ten sectors looking to be down in the third quarter contributing to the growth rate. materials and energy are two sectors we are going to see really low that have been down for most of the year. >> what is most concerning to
you in that yes earnings can be down and there could be expectations of terrible earnings but it is really the market expectations. when you overlay the performance of the sectors which have gone up the most and are not supporting that move? >> i would say again i.t. is expected to be the biggest leader when we go into the third quarter about 7.8%. we have seen that lead for most of this year. and then they are going to be up again in the fourth quarter. we see discrepancies with the materials sector. they are going to bounce back in the fourth quarter. we are going to see financials bounce back in the fourth quarter with about 22%. sort of hard to see where we get that. the fourth quarter growth rate of about 10% right now is hard to understand where that comes from if we do come down negative in the third quarter. that is what analysts are seeing right now strength mostly in the
fourth quarter to continue throughout 2013. >> get back to materials. this is a place i think if people are rotating the last two sessions or so people have started to do this. companies are possibly very cheap. it plays on where you put in prices and commodities. how are you handling this? if i look at where these companies are from a valuation perspective i can get really excited. we saw china's numbers which were horrible. i don't see companies getting a big bit here. >> analysts are looking at china and saying the decline of demand in china is worrisome. metals and mining expected to drive the sector down about 20% in the third quarter. really a big chunk of that is metals and mining companies as you would expect also down about 20%. some of the other areas are a little bit stronger with materials sector but it is
minerals and mining bringing it down. >> so what's the headline that investors should walk away with as we enter the final weeks of the year? that stocks are at multi year highs? >> companies are very uncertain of where this year is going to end. are we going to end third quarter down and be able to prop back up in the fourth quarter? i think we certainly have to pay attention to in a month when companies report third quarter earnings. again going into 2013. i think second quarter really kicked it off lowest growth rate since third quarter of 2009. if we come down negative it will be the first negative we have seen since 2009 ending the streak of double digit earnings growth. >> thanks for coming by. appreciate it. let's go to financials specifically because that was
flagged seeing growth. we have seen a monster run in financials over the past week or so. >> the beta stocks. bank of america comes to the forefront. again, the one financial that continues to sort of chug along while the stocks are making nice highs but nowhere near the 52-week high here is a stock or bank. got hurt by the broader tape. you saw the stock making new four-year highs. if you are looking for slow and steady wins the race that is where i would go. >> you are looking at the different financials into one because of the fact that they were rolling out of november calls going from the november 16th calls and today rolling out to december, 17 calls. buying a little bit of time still getting upside but maybe trying to get through this wave of uncertainty into the election but buying into the last couple
of weeks on the year. with stocks rallying more than 12% there is one thing that can derail the meltup. we'll protect you from it. that is next. as hedge funds go all in should you do the opposite? stay tuned to see what is behind the curtain as we get ready to reveal our trade of the day. e g. i had three kids. and she became the full time mother of three. it was soccer, and ballet, and cheerleading, and baseball. those years were crazy.
77 on palo alto networks. >> this is one that you have recommended. it is in the camp of high expectations. >> a lot of the thesis behind owning this is the potential for infrastructure security. they are one of the leaders in this in terms of growth. 5 billion is somewhere where the market cap is. i think someone comes in and they are taken out. stock trading around 62. >> chinese stocks rallied today in hopes of additional stimulus measures. one strategist says china may not have the cash to fund stimulus plans. >> china now is one in which there might be a shortage of cash. you can see that to some extent in the decline of industrial profit which is down more than 16% year to date. and revenue which is still
growing but still a pace. i think the issue with stimulus in china is simply where is the money for the stimulus. >> that was adrian mowat of jp morgan. so much has been driven around this expectation of stimulus. >> he has been dead on with the bearishness of china. 13 highway projects. there is notable downward pressure on the economy. i think they can do whatever they want. i think there is plenty of money -- >> they can print even though there are inflation air forces. >> it is tracking about 3.9%. this is well within their band. global forces is at work here. they do have room t. is a question of property taxes which they are scared to death about. they are not going to go after stimulus the way they did.
if you look at commodity prices ubs's commodity guy says we think qe 3 is a reason to rotate into the mining sector. this is absolutely a commodity restocking approach. iron ore in china three month high. everyone that doesn't know about iron ore but has been told this is getting back to 2009 levels you are starting to see some support here. you are talking about a commodity market unlike copper or gold. you can push prices around if you are the chinese. they can push prices lower than the market should be. i think you will start to see more of a rally here. it has been more than a two day trade. i would stay with this one. >> let's stick with china. a big bet on the shanghai composite. what was the positioning there?
>> we saw a giant put purchase. if you look at the chart it is pretty ugly so it is easy to understand why someone would be bearish. they bought just under 22,000 of the puts. that represents over 2 million shares. they payed $1.19 for the puts. pretty pricy all the way around. the interesting thing is the break for the trade is $31.81. obviously this put buyer thinks it is headed back below 30. >> is that really and i will ask timmy this, as well. is that really a speculative play? is there a correlation? >> you can be somebody who is bearish and wants to protect a smaller position that they have. you don't step up and lay out this kind of cash on a whim.
this is somebody who is pretty committed. >> if i look at what has happened in china i have been very impressed by the volume behind the move. we had follow through today. big buying which has been missing. we continue this way the rally is sustainable. it is definitely containing the big names like pet rochina. i don't know that that gives you the best readings. >> check out the new facebook page for the show which is facebook.com/options action. data showing that hedge funds have raised bullish bets to the highest levels in 16 months. are hedge fund investors on the right track? the first reaction i have when i hear this is i think of the goldman sachs report which
showed only 11% were outperforming the markets. should we listen to what hedge funds are doing when it comes to commodities? >> in this case i think they probably should. as i look over playing the golf course thinking about the commodity markets and wondering where they are going to go i have to say we are thinking they are doing the right thing. given the fed to come in with qe 3 and the decisions by the ecb to clearly monetize european debt. given and i think timmy is right look at china with infrastructure plays i think that means commodity prices and especially the coal and the base metals look to me to be the place to be. i think the hedge funds are in exactly the right time at i think probably the right time. the world seems to be bearish about china. i think the world should be more
aggressively bullish about china. i think with the european base monetizing i think the wind is behind the sails. >> i'm not sure if you are near the tv and can see the graphic. we have a graphic saying you were along gold and in soy meal terms. what the heck is that? can you walk us through that trade? >> i know that seems bizarre. if you are a buying of soybean meal you have to make a change in currency. what is soybean meal doing in terms of gold. the gold chart continues to move from the lower left to the upper right. soybean meal has broken its up trend. if you are a soybean meal buyer you want to be short soybean meal. the weather has turned a little
bit better. i know we are getting close to another usda crop report so i will probably pull that in for more. i don't go into reports with positions on. to me it looks like i want to own gold unbalanced. dollar terms, euro terms and yen terms. if the crop report is not overtly bearish i will probably continue to say the trend for gold is upward. the trend of soybeans and soybean meal which has been the dominant product of the soybean market looks to have broken the line. i tend to buy one thing and sell something else and in this instance that was a punt. it is not for investors. it is for punters. >> i know pete has seen a lot of activity with it. i think it is going
significantly higher from here. do you think silver a lot of people abandon it? do you think it has speculative juices back in? >> i have to agree. if you are going to be -- if somebody made me trade silver i have to trade it from the long side. i leave it to you guys to swim 100 miles in the water. i can't do that. i think there is a shortage of silver out there and i may take a look at buying nearby silver and selling deferred. before this is over you might take the silver market. i think there is that potential. >> not too old to trade meal. always good to speak with you. >> or to play golf. >> the full lesson on soybean meal. we touched on gold and silver. how about oil? >> the thesis that dennis threw
out there is a little bit the deep end of the pool and maybe a little confusing. the one point that is accurate is for a lot of commodity names for oil to move higher you need to see a little bit of rotation. that would come from the grain. if you see a sell off in the grains you could see the beneficiary being the top names and precious metals. we may have found the most valuable form of currency the world has known. you have to stay tuned to find out what it is. later it's the best investment you have your home. it is the question all homeowners want answered. and the queen of real estate is here to do it. [ male announcer ] trading's like a high-speed train.
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just picking up some, brochures, posters copies of my acceptance speech. great! it's always good to have a backup plan, in case i get hit by a meteor. wow, your hair looks great. didn't realize they did photoshop here. hey, good call on those mugs. can't let 'em see what you're drinking. you know, i'm glad we're both running a nice, clean race. no need to get nasty. here's your "honk if you had an affair with taylor" yard sign. looks good. [ male announcer ] fedex office. now save 50% on banners. mark zuckerberg speaking at the tech crunch conference tomorrow. we asked you what would get you
interested in buying facebook stocks. what do you have? >> traders on twitter are hungry for some type of big change to help facebook get out of this rut. mark tweets why not skip the ad revenue model and charge users a monthly fee. tim relays bullish points. he says the issue with monetizing is a hand ringing problem that is not hard to solve. champ tweets if zuckerberg states his plan that would be great. this isn't a harvard dorm room anymore. a long term plan is what people in the real world are looking for. >> thanks for that. what would cause you to buy facebook? >> not very much. a new ceo potentially. clearly the trade in the social networking space if that is what you want to call it has been
linked in. it continues to work. that is the correct trade. for all the analysts coming out pontificating for the potential for facebook clearly the trajectory appears to have peaked out in 2011. >> they just got to get out there and he has to point out monetization. they have done a poor job of projecting that. i think this is an opportunity. it could be an e-commerce. i own the stock because i think the potential is there. the down side is now more limited. >> tomorrow at this tech crunch conference the emphasize is product announcements. it is not generally seen as the hard hitting interview that zuckerberg will give to the founder of tech crunch. did we hear any of it? >> no. >> people think this is their moment. when you say you own the stock you own it for a trade or for an
investment? >> right now i'm owning it expecting to see something. it is not really so much a trade. this is more of an investment at this point in time. we kick it off with a drop for intel down 3%. >> the stock has been down basically 16 of 20 days. they are saying $2 a share. they are saying mobile chips are not the ones that matter. >> jc penney up 1%. >> you look at this. free haircuts. >> they are extending that promotion every sunday for children. you can't go to jc penney and get a haircut. >> i was so fired up. >> what is better than being at jc penney on sunday for a free haircut. >> with a bunch of kids.
>> can we color also? >> volatility spiked back into the market place. we are still talking about extremely low levels. if you are in the market right now or want to enter get some protection. >> chinese made an announcement to push for more domestic use of solar. to me this is the same story that we heard on the expectations if demand were to increase. stocks moving back. wouldn't buy it. wouldn't be short. no trade. >> nike up 1%. >> nike is going to be the beneficiary as lemon seems to be running out of gas. the nike chart from this summer is really pretty. it broke below $90 and has been a series of higher highs and higher lows and reasonable growth in the stock price. we have a pop for bacon.
the new oscar mayer promotion asks do americans love bacon as much as money? to find the answer josh is going on a cross country trip with no money and no credit cards and just meat. he has scored a flag and jets tickets all by bartering bacon. >> that is about what jets tickets are worth. >> we'll see. >> 48 points. >> you are a jet fan? >> football expert. >> hurricane ike is a jets fan and effecting storage levels. people think the government numbers will show that number. >> sprint the move 2%. >> it feels like it continues to want to go higher. it feels like it wants to trade 6 before 5. a lot of people have been betting against the stock.
>> a drop for morgan stanley. >> we are talking about up over 15%. this pullback probably a natural pullback and the other part is trying to get the valuation deal worked out. >> a pop for urban outfitters. >> 38.77 is a stockout price. the stock has done nothing but go up since earnings on august 31st. do you go to anthropology? >> i took it in college. >> urban outfitters. >> was fantastic. had classes outside. wonderful. >> that's what you interrupt joe for. >> phenomenal on the back of anthropology for 38.77. >> green mountain up 9%. >> that's right. new product details on friday as well as some bullish analyst discussion. stock was up huge on friday.
it is up huge again today on giant volume. this is fasten your seat belt. it adult swim here. >> a bizarre new m theater. the hot tub cinema has done away with boring movie theater seats and replaced them with hot tubs holding about eight adults usually reserved by a single party. gather eight of us. >> i would not be sharing a hot tub with you. i'm out there on record. >> you have your own. >> i'm game. >> maybe we can trade bacon for it. >> he's a fan of the jets. next are bidding wars back as the housing market recovers?
every potential home buyer what they need to know. plus a well known stock soars 20%. much more straight ahead. 7 e-trade was founded on the simple belief that bringing you better technology helps make you a better investor. with our revolutionary e-trade 360 dashboard you see exactly where your money is and what it's doing live. our e-trade pro platform offers powerful functionality that's still so usable you'll actually use it. and our mobile apps are the ultimate in wherever whenever investing. no matter what kind of investor you are, you'll find the technology to help you become a better one at e-trade.
. we are live at the nasdaq in times square. home prices are up nearly 7% from just three months ago partly driven by lower inventory and fewer foreclosures. does the move signal a big housing come back. barbara, it is a pleasure to have you with us. you're saying that there are bidding wars going on. >> almost all across the country and aappraisals are coming in very, very cheap and jinxing one out of three deals in the market today because they are lagging behind the new appraised value. >> getting to the point of tighter bank restrictions more conservative in general just because prices are going higher should we extrapolate that the housing market is recovering? >> there are more buyers out
there. that is less important than the fact that houses are trading at a higher price. it takes two months versus three months to sell the house. there are bidding wars in one quarter of the homes on the market. >> is it the places where we know there are value the ones that have held their value, are you seeing in places like a phoenix or a fort lauderdale or places that at least were part of the last boom but are not a new york city or downtown chicago or places that will always have value? >> fort lauderdale has pockets that are really going up quickly because they had a tremendous foreclosure market. parts of chicago are lagging behind. the recovery is very uneven. the fact of the matter is that three quarters of all the towns in america are seeing some kind of appreciation and people think the housing market is laying low. >> love you, fan of the show. >> you're my man. >> what do they need to do to
get the red tape so it is not so much of a headache. short sales and everything else, that was a stumbling block. >> a lot of good minded legislation was put in to protect the consumer. right now it is materializing as cheap appraisers, wrong appraisals. it is not protecting the consumer. it is taking the first and second time buyer out of the market. they can't get the house appraised. it is almost ironic what has happened. the legislation came out too late and the market was already turning the corner and now it is in the way. >> if i were an investor in this market with $500,000 to spend on an investment what market would be the best opportunity? >> the best opportunity is always the guy next door to you. you know the market and the right and wrong side of the street. the way that people lose their shirt every time is when they try to sharp shoot the hot new markets or rising markets and they have no business being
there because they don't know it. >> new york city a lot of viewers are here in new york city. where are the best opportunities? >> every place that before this recession hit, portions of brooklyn, the river, harlem is back. certainly parts of the south bronx is back. right now it looks like the same old business as usual that we had almost four years ago. >> how about for the banks? who is actually easier to work with? who is being opportunistic here and who is getting caught up in red tape and getting out of the business by stepping all over themselves here? >> two people pay the price. certainly the appraisers. it has become a number game. the second most expensive part are the buyers. they can't get their hands on the money from the bank and can't get the house appraised at the right value.
>> the rental market has been unbelievable. is that going to turn based on what you are saying? >> you think about the rentals and sales as opposite. when the sales are really good the rentals fall. when the sales are falling and everybody is stalling and they don't want to commit then the rentals go up. we had a bonanza. landlords are smiling. that's going to change the minute everybody realizes that they better get it now before they pay more tomorrow. >> always great to get your perspective. thanks for coming by. >> get out there and buy. help a salesman. coming up next on fast the bailout fund. and our trade of the day is bound to get people talking. wait until you see what is behind this curtain. stay tuned. how do you know which ones to follow?
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should be no qe 3. for more polls like us at facebook.com/fastmoney. >> i didn't see it. i will revisit it later on on tevo. currency traders are awaiting the fed's decision. they are watching the german constitutional court this week which is expected to rule on the legality of the rescue fund. great to have you with us. in your view is the german constitutional court a tradeable event? >> i think it can be. i mean, the biggest event of the week is the announcement on thursday. there is some risk around tomorrow actually and the german court decision because the actual decision will be taken as you mentioned on wednesday. the german court will decide whether or not to issue a
conjunction due to the compatibility wst german constitution. a little hiccup was a politician filed a petition in light of the bond buying plan saying that the injunction has to be reconsidered in light of the bond buying plan and the constitutional court should delay the decision on wednesday. they will make a decision on that tomorrow. i think we'll go forward on wednesday and there won't be a problem. the german court will lift the injunction. >> in terms of the fed you are expecting the fed to announce a qe 3 and put a risk on trade. you are getting long aussie dollar. >> enter at 103.40 and put a stop at the 102.20 area.
oh, hey alex. just picking up some, brochures, posters copies of my acceptance speech. great! it's always good to have a backup plan, in case i get hit by a meteor. wow, your hair looks great. didn't realize they did photoshop here. hey, good call on those mugs. can't let 'em see what you're drinking. you know, i'm glad we're both running a nice, clean race. no need to get nasty. here's your "honk if you had an affair with taylor" yard sign. looks good. [ male announcer ] fedex office. now save 50% on banners.
up next kramer holds a fashion show to find the retail stocks who had the right look. drilling down on the energy play for real value. a boost as three separate firms raise. lulu is up 65% year to date. is it back? erica, great to have you with us. you point out aptly that q 3 was higher solidly. what is the next catalyst to bring it to the price target that you have? >> the story will unfold through the back half of the year. i think everyone is looking forward to the holidays. the company really highlighted that they have a lot of innovation coming and the
products should look really good. >> in terms of the macroeconomic environment is there anything to cause concern about the lulu story or is this a stock that is immune? >> the fiscal cliff and a pullback in spending would impact the stock. they have a lot of drivers that are beyond that. they have a ton of white space. they are still growing brand awareness and extending the product line. so the stock would definitely be impacted but they have other organic drivers to help limit the pull back. >> it is a name i have traded for the long side. unfortunately at times it hasn't worked well. why is this time different than the story investors were faced with back in may? >> i think back in may people were trying to figure out management's new strategy to not
chase product in any quarter and go after the dollar. we are getting to the point where we are going to benefit on the strategy because the company is focused on innovation and we will see the fruits of their labor. >> good to have you. thanks for your time. joe, where do you stand on lulu right now. >> jimmy tried to make a joke about black pants. >> and traded it awful. terrible trade. i would like to be back but i swore off the name. >> and the black pants perhaps. scott nations unveil the trade. >> this is a name i generally like but it has gotten way ahead of itself. the name is linked in. and the trade is earlier in the day i bought the put spread. i paid 1.55 on legs.
i am looking for it to head to 1.07. >> are you in linked? >> i'm not. this has been absolutely one of the names that has surprised everybody and the fact that it continued to hold up and run to the levels everybody has been basically shocked but they continue to surprise. >> are you on linked in? >> i have a bunch of people send me e-mails. i don't know how to do it. i use like four or five passwords and it says you are locked out. >> he has correctly identified the stock as being the right social networking. >> more importantly. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 you should've seen me today.
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